shutime

For those of you who don’t know or haven’t followed the MLB the past couple years, there’s quite a few teams that have been pretty consistently lackluster. Unlike the NFL, where a team who finishes in last place wins the division the next year nearly every season, (that’s true by the way) baseball teams typically stay in the caste system they exist in. A lack of salary cap allows the richest owners to pay as much money as they want which effectively keeps the bigger-market teams winning games while smaller markets fall behind. There’s a reason why the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers combine for 34 World Series wins. Yes, it obviously has to do with the age of the teams and the fact that they’ve had more opportunity. But even to that point, some of the oldest teams in baseball have 20 less wins than the Yankees.

It definitely is possible to win without being the biggest spender. If you’ve seen the movie Moneyball, you know that the Oakland A’s actually sold their biggest named players to make a postseason push. They actually did it again in 2018, when they made the MLB Postseason despite being 30th in payroll (Although they did lose to the New York Yankees who ranked 1st).

These stories are cool but generally, they’re not a reflection of how baseball works.

Since 1995, every World Series champion has ranked in the top half or higher in payroll. 20 out of 28 of those years the champion was ranked in the top 10. All except one: the 2003 Miami Marlins. The 2003 Marlins are a ridiculous case of a team who was literally trying to lose but couldn’t and were blessed by baseball’s most infamous curse, so I’ll hold off talking about them for another time. They deserve their own post. So to conclude this first point, money = championships.

Unless we’re talking about the 2023 MLB season.

This season, 5 of the top 10 teams in payroll are currently out of the playoff picture. The Yankees, Mets, and Padres rank 1st through third in payroll and all are at least 18 games behind their division leaders. The Angels rank 6th and will miss the postseason by 13 games. While the Rangers rank 9th and are currently a half game out of a wild card spot.

On the flip side, 6 of the bottom 10 teams are currently on pace to make the postseason. Including AL East Division leading (and arguably the best team in baseball) Orioles who rank 29th in payroll. Just in front of them are the Wild Card-locked Tampa Bay Rays who rank 28th. Cincinnati, Miami, Arizona, and Milwaukee also hang out at the bottom of payroll. All of them are currently in the postseason picture.

What’s crazy about these teams dominating baseball isn’t the fact that they pay less money. That’s interesting certainly, but there’s something even more crazy about it.

What really blows my mind is almost all of these teams were terrible last season. The Marlins, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Orioles all finished in fourth place in their divisions by a combined 116 games. None of them coming within 15 games of winning their division.

The Orioles hadn’t won 90 games or the AL East since 2014. They currently have 87 wins and a 3.5 game lead. The Rays tied the longest undefeated streak in MLB history after finishing third last season. The Reds have basically all of baseball’s exciting rookies and lead the league in SB while the Diamondbacks are somehow winning with a full outfield made up of left handed, shorter than 5’10”, younger than 25 year old outfielders. That one’s way too specific, I know.

So why did this happen? Is it just a coincidence? Did these teams just play the farm circuit so well over the years that they were bound to explode? Are the big market teams just choking? Is it all the new rule changes?

The answer to all of those questions is yes. (I think)

To a certain degree, one small market, low payroll team is always bound to be in the playoff race. Maybe everyone in your division has a losing record (Minnesota). Maybe your division became plagued by injury (Arizona).

In the case of the Orioles, it really is a mix.

The Yankees struggled with all kinds of injuries while dealing with their own clubhouse issues. The Rays had a similar situation amidst a very public scandal with their star player Wander Franco. All the while, the insanely young Orioles began to mash while also bringing life back to their ballpark. Something the Reds hadn’t done for years.

The Orioles and Reds have both lived by a homegrown mentality this season.

The Reds don’t currently start a player over the age of 30 and their 3 biggest stars, (McLain, Steer, and de la Cruz) are all younger than 25.

The Diamondbacks are a young team too, with every starter other than Christian Walker under 30. Plus, rookie Corbin Carroll has been instrumental in bringing the DBacks back into relevance.

The Rays were no different and sadly, they were probably baseball’s most exciting team until 22 year old Wander Franco was dismissed from the team. All but Yandy Diaz were under 30 in that lineup.

So to answer the question of why this happened? Coincidence, luck, injury, and the youth! The rule changes all benefit a young, speedy player! The one thing all these small market teams have in common is a couple really flashy stars that are bringing people back into the stands while flashing around the bases. Elly de la Cruz practically single-handedly has Great American Ballpark packed out, and that’s all because of a few weeks of good baseball.

Corbin Carroll is actually bringing people into Chase Field (which is a terrible ballpark to watch a game at) again by being a speedy rookie OF with a lot of pop.

Finally, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman have Baltimore in first place with a packed stadium.

In my opinion, the common theme to this crazy year of baseball is the young stars. Teams like the Dodgers, Braves, and Astros are all still big winners and probable World Series winners. But they’re not what this season has been about. 2023 has belonged to the teams making a resurgence, and the players helping to make that happen.

As for the rule changes, those have definitely helped. Most of the teams in the playoff picture have been those with the most stolen bases. But you can make the statistics say whatever you want so I don’t take that to be an exact reason.

Regardless, the wild season thus far has made for an excellent year in baseball and I’m excited to see more small market teams dominate in the future.